Who’s afraid of big, bad Hezbollah?
Foreign Policy – By David Kenner
Patrick Barry noticed this very interesting passage from the U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat assessment:
We judge that, unlike al-Qa’ida, Hizballah, which has not directly attacked US interests overseas over the past 13 years, is not now actively plotting to strike the Homeland. However, we cannot rule out that the group would attack if it perceives that the US is threatening its core interests.
He then compares it to the Director of National Intelligence’s assessment in 2007 (Hezbollah’s “self confidence and hostility toward the US…could cause the group to increase its contingency planning against US interests”), in 2008 (Hezbollah has “expressed the desire to use cyber means to target the United States”), and 2009 (Hezbollah “continues to be a formidable terrorist adversary with an ability to attack the US Homeland”).
It’s worth pointing out that Hezbollah hasn’t changed appreciably since 2007; the only thing that has shifted is the U.S. assessment of the party. And it’s a little strange to point out that Hezbollah won’t change its plans unless the United States is “threatening its core interests.” That is undoubtedly true, but of course the U.S. government is a threat to Hezbollah’s interests. The only question is how serious the U.S.-backed challenge to Hezbollah’s status as Lebanon’s preeminent armed force is; ever since the country was seized by a widespread, if largely contrived, spirit of reconciliation following May 2008, the answer is “not very.” However, when the next political crisis arises, expect Hezbollah to find its way back on the list of threats to the United States.
Egyptian sources: Israel prepares to strike Iran from Gulf and N. Iraq
Arab voices were fanning Middle East war fever Wednesday night, Feb. 3. debkafile’s military sources report that not only are Syrian leaders beating war drums – Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem said in Damascus: “Israelis, do not test the power of Syria since you know the war will move into your cities” – but Egyptian military sources have put out information purporting to outline Israel’s preparations to strike Iran.
They report that the Israeli Navy together with the US Fifth Fleet have for some weeks been charting Persian Gulf waters and Iranian shorelines in preparation for attacks by Israeli naval and special operations forces.
IDF intelligence and special forces officers, they also say, have been marking out routes for their air and ground forces to drive into Iran and hit its nuclear installations.
According to these Egyptian sources, Saudi Arabia has demanded clarifications from Washington about reported US-assisted Israeli preparations to strike Iran and asks why they were not brought to the notice of Riyadh and the Gulf Arab governments.
The Saudis added that several Gulf intelligence and naval units had tracked Israeli movements and gathered documentary evidence.
Some of this information was leaked in Cairo Wednesday night to Shorouk, a publication which Egyptian intelligence often uses as an outlet for information held to be credible.
Shorouk was first out with the story of the Israeli Air Force attack on Iranian arms convoys in Sudan in January 2009.
