Prologue:
Howard Hart was the Chief of Station for the CIA in the Persian Gulf – a position that took him to Iran during the fall of the Shah. After serving in Iran he spent three years as Chief of Station in Islamabad, Pakistan. During his tenure in Islamabad, Hart assisted the Afghans in their resistance to the Soviet invasion. He is the most decorated CIA official ever, receiving the Intelligence Star – among other awards – for his service. This is his latest piece. What he writes is most thought provoking.
Iraq: Time to ring the bell
By Howard Hart
Many years ago I attended a series of Headquarters briefings for out-going CIA Chiefs of Station. Our main speaker was Richard Helms, then the Agency’s Director and one of the lions of American foreign policy in the 1960’s and 70’s. A man who was subsequently crucified in the Nixon catastrophe. Dick was essentially giving us our instructions, and in my mind his most telling directive was the quiet statement: “Ring the Bell.” Telling us to sing out when we apprehended a major disaster in the offing.
It’s time to ring the bell on Iraq.
Briefly put, in a matter of months Iran will emerge the unchallenged military and economic power dominating the area from Lebanon to Pakistan. It will control Iraq, and be in a position to shut off all oil supplies from the Persian Gulf. It will be free to provide extensive assistance to the Taliban in Afghanistan, thus ensuring a NATO defeat in that country.
It will be in a position to provide crucial support to radical Islamic elements in Pakistan – which may well result in the collapse of that already shaky nuclear-armed government. It will be free to radically increase its support to a variety of terrorist organizations targeting the US. And, in conjunction with well armed radical Palestinian forces that already exist on Israel’s borders, it will pose the greatest threat ever faced by Israel. A threat that I do not believe Israel could survive without direct US military intervention.
By the end of this month American combat units are to have withdrawn from Iraq, leaving approximately 50,000 troops behind – all of whom are to be gone by the end of 2011. As a result of the refusal of the key religious and tribal factions in the country to coalesce into anything even remotely approaching a national government, there is no government in Iraq. Nor will there be before the last American troops are withdrawn.
Even if by some miracle there were one, there is no effective Iraqi National Army or National Police Force to defend it or to enforce its decisions. Nor will such forces exist when the US withdraws in sixteen short months.
There are several key reasons why this situation will exist after we have occupied Iraq for over eight years, had over 4,400 of our soldiers killed, and expended billions of aid money – and worked mightily to create both a government and the forces to defend it.
First, Iraqi “politicians” are in the main, a bunch of narrowly self-interested, power and money-hungry, religiously antagonistic, avaricious and short-sighted people, unwilling to place national interests ahead of personal ones. Second, the minority Sunni Muslim population and the Kurdish tribals quite rightly fear that a Shia Muslim dominated government and military would treat them as third-class citizens – and perhaps threaten their very existence. Finally … there is Iran: an outlaw and bitterly anti-US Shia Muslim theocracy that is determined that post-US Iraq will be an Iranian vassal state.
Iran has covertly poured money and arms into supporting Iraqi Shias for years, and will continue to do so. Once the Americans are really gone, Iran will drop any pretense of non-interference in Iraqi affairs, and, by bribery and intimidation, ensure that whatever passes for an Iraqi government, military and police is under Iranian control.
Note: Unless the Kurdish areas of the country are protected by either US or international forces, the Kurds will face attack from both the Shia government and Iran. Iraq’s Sunni Muslims will either have to knuckle under to the Shia, or go into protracted internal warfare – which they cannot win.
read more

























